WMO Report: World Will Continue to Warm Over Next Five Years

The World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) forecast for the next five years predicts more hurricanes. And more drought. And more heat. It could even be hotter than the agreed-upon limit for avoiding some of the more extreme effects of climate change.   

WMO scientists wrote in their new 5-year report that they expect average global temps to be "at or near record levels in the five-year period 2025-2029." The report also noted that there is a 90% chance that temps will be between 1.2° Celsius (C) and 1.9°C higher than the average global temps between 1850-1900. 

The report draws from climate trends of the past five years. It uses hundreds of computer models of future weather, wind, and ocean currents. It also factors in things such as carbon emissions and the melting of ice sheets. The report shows an 80% chance that the world will pass the benchmark 1.5°C (2.7° Fahrenheit) warming limit. That limit was set during the 2015 Paris Climate Accords. Experts have long said that limit is a tipping point in the world’s battle against climate change.   

Natalie Mahowald told The Associated Press that higher temps mean "a higher chance of extreme weather.” And that, she adds, "translates to more lives lost.” She is a Cornell University climate scientist. 

To slow warming, experts say the world must commit to cutting way back on carbon emissions. It's a goal most have been slow to do, public policy professor David Victor says.  

"(The system) doesn’t change quickly," Victor told The Washington Post.    

Reflect: What do you think makes it hard for people or governments to make big changes, even when they know those changes are important?

Gif of melting glacier from GIPHY.