How High Or Low Could Sea Levels Go?

Written By Teacher: Elizabeth Ward

My name is Elizabeth Ward. I am a former Early Childhood, Elementary, and English as a Foreign Language educator. I have taught third grade Science and Social Studies as well as Kindergarten in both urban and rural Oklahoma public schools. I taught online EFL to students of all ages in China for four years. I also have experience in curriculum development and content design for teachers in the physical and digital classroom. As a former teacher I have a passion for supporting teachers and making their jobs easier. I currently live in the greater Houston area with my husband and four dogs. 

Future sea level rise depends on factors like greenhouse gas emissions, ice sheet stability, and global temperature changes. Best-case scenarios involve slower, more manageable increases, while worst-case projections could lead to severe coastal flooding and displacement. Exploring these possibilities helps students understand the importance of mitigation and adaptation strategies. This topic encourages discussions about climate modeling, risk assessment, and the long-term impacts of rising seas. Check out these SubjectToClimate lessons all about sea level rise; Math Lesson: Sea Level Rise, Sea Level Rise and Flooding Lesson, and Geometry Lesson: Calculating Sea Level Rise.

Written By: MIT Environmental Solutions Initiative

The MIT Climate Change Engagement Program, a part of MIT Climate HQ, provides the public with nonpartisan, easy-to-understand, and scientifically-grounded information on climate change and its solutions.

Earth’s sea level is rising as humanity warms the atmosphere and oceans by burning fossil fuels. Average sea level has risen by more than 20 centimeters (about 8 inches) since 1900, and it keeps rising faster, says Brent Minchew, an MIT geophysicist who studies glaciers and oceans.

However, he says, there is an enormous difference between the potential best- and worst-case scenarios for the future of sea level rise.

An important question is how much climate-warming greenhouse gas we continue to put in the atmosphere. In the rosiest possible future, global average sea level will rise another 20 to 50 centimeters (8 to 20 inches) by the year 2100. Minchew says the low end of that range would require humanity to achieve negative greenhouse gas emissions—in other words, not only stopping new emissions but also removing some excess greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere. The higher end, 50 cm, would occur if we did not meaningfully manage to cut our emissions, but still avoided a spike in sea levels from the collapse of major ice sheets or glaciers.