The Vicious Cycle of AC and Climate Change

Carbon emissions fill the air with greenhouse gases . Greenhouse gases trap the sun’s heat, making Earth warmer. People crank up their air conditioning (AC) to beat the summer swelter. Air conditioners emit greenhouse gases as they cool things down. And thus the AC “feedback loop” is born.  

The looping cycle of AC use is the subject of a new study. It was published in the journal Nature Communications. A global research team looked at AC trends over the past 25 years. They then used computer models to predict how patterns of AC use may change in the future. 

According to the International Energy Agency, 1.5 billion homes and buildings had AC units in 2022. That's triple what it was in 2000. By 2023, 37% of people worldwide had access to AC. By 2030, it’s predicted to reach 45%. 

“As global temperatures rise, we risk being locked into an ‘arms race’ where defending ourselves against extreme heat is causing the issue to get worse,” expert Yuli Shan told Time. Shan is a climate professor at the University of Birmingham.

Shan's also a co-author of the study. He said that less developed countries in places like Africa and South America bear an outsized burden as temps rise. They suffer more drought and worse heat waves. They also suffer greater chances of weather disasters than countries farther from the Equator. They also have lower AC access. As temps rise, those countries are likely to boost their AC use. That could add as much as 8.3 gigatons of carbon to the atmosphere. It's roughly equal to the US’ current yearly output.  

To avoid the AC feedback loop, Shan suggests a balanced approach. 

“The world must transition quickly to cleaner, more efficient cooling technologies — while ensuring fair access to cooling, especially for vulnerable populations,” he told Time. 

Reflect: How do you think people can balance their comfort and daily needs with the responsibility to protect the environment?

Photo of AC units from Unsplash courtesy of Joshua Tsu.